La economía global sigue frágil y los pronósticos
para Europa y EEUU son negativos

Aumentan temores de que una vez más
la recuperación sea dudosa

Por Annie Lowrey
New York Times, 19/04/2012
Crisis-economica.blogspot, 21/04/2012

Washington.- Algunos de los mismos problemas que interrumpieron la recuperación en 2010 y 2011 han regresado y alimentan ahora el temor de que la fuerza económica del invierno pueda llegar a disiparse en la primavera.

En las últimas semanas, el rendimiento de los bonos europeos empezó a subir. En Estados Unidos y en todas partes, los altos precios del petróleo minan el poder de los gastos. Los empresarios estadounidenses siguen con miedo de contratar nuevos empleados y se produjeron más reclamos sobre el seguro de desempleo. Y las acciones están en baja.

Hay "una leve recuperación, que sopla en el viento primaveral" con "oscuros nubarrones en el horizonte", dijo anteayer Christine Lagarde, directora ejecutiva del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), en la inauguración de las reuniones que se celebran en Washington.

Los analistas dicen que la tendencia apunta a una moderación del crecimiento económico en Estados Unidos, pero aún esperan que la recuperación continúe este año.

Sin embargo, el grado del reciente debilitamiento de la actividad demuestra que la economía sigue frágil, tal como resulta típico en los años que suceden a una crisis financiera.

Las persistentes preocupaciones económicas son el telón de fondo de las reuniones anuales de primavera del Fondo Monetario y el Banco Mundial. Los ministros de Finanzas y los funcionarios de los bancos centrales se reúnen en Washington para hablar de la manera de aumentar el crecimiento y reducir el desempleo.

Esta semana, el Fondo mejoró su estimación del crecimiento global en 2012 y 2013 respecto de las estimaciones que hizo en enero, pero lo hizo con grandes salvedades.

"Reina una calma incómoda", dijo Olivier Blanchard, el economista en jefe del FMI. "Uno tiene la sensación de que, en cualquier momento, las cosas podrían volver a ponerse muy mal."

Europa es aún la principal preocupación. En un informe publicado esta semana, los economistas del Fondo dijeron que las instituciones financieras de la UE reducirán su capital disponible hasta unos 2600 billones de dólares para fines del año próximo, reduciendo así la disponibilidad de créditos para empresas e individuos hasta en un 1,6 por ciento.

Los políticos de Washington también tienen algunas preocupaciones en el ámbito nacional. El miércoles, el secretario del Tesoro, Timothy F. Geithner, señaló que la recuperación había sido lenta y advirtió que el viento en contra no ha cesado.

Europa y Estados Unidos juntos representan alrededor de un tercio del flujo del comercio global, y sus sistemas financieros están inextricablemente enlazados. Por esa razón, Geithner instó a los líderes europeos a no cejar en sus esfuerzos para bajar el rendimiento de los bonos y apuntalar el crecimiento.

Un tercer año consecutivo de decepción económica podría tener importantes implicaciones políticas, perjudicaría la campaña de reelección del presidente Obama y ayudaría a Mitt Romney, el probable nominado republicano.

Los economistas están divididos en lo referido a la importancia de la reciente disminución de la actividad, y muchos de ellos afirman que lo más probable es que se trate de un problema pasajero, y no de un cambio de grandes proporciones.

No obstante, según algunos pronósticos, Estados Unidos crecerá a un ritmo relativamente lento de alrededor de un 2,5% este año. Y el panorama económico global sigue caracterizado por un crecimiento anémico y alto desempleo.

El liderazgo del FMI y del Banco Mundial subrayará estos problemas en las reuniones de Washington.

FalteringLos funcionarios planean advertir a los países de bajos ingresos que no dependan de las inversiones de las economías avanzadas con enormes deudas, y señalarán que la ayuda y los envíos de dinero pueden disminuir este año.

También instarán a los países con mucho capital e ingresos medios, como China, que se aseguren un aterrizaje suave si sus economías se enfrían.

Sobre todo, los funcionarios instarán a Europa a apuntalar el crecimiento económico en países como Italia y España, aumentando al mismo tiempo la capacidad de préstamo del FMI.

Rising Fears That Recovery May Once
More Be Faltering

By Annie Lowrey
New York Times, April 19, 2012

Washington — Some of the same spoilers that interrupted the recovery in 2010 and 2011 have emerged again, raising fears that the winter’s economic strength might dissipate in the spring.

In recent weeks, European bond yields have started climbing. In the United States and elsewhere, high oil prices have sapped spending power. American employers remain skittish about hiring new workers, and new claims for unemployment insurance have risen. And stocks have declined.

There is a “light recovery blowing in a spring wind” with “dark clouds on the horizon,” Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said Thursday, at the start of meetings here that will focus on Europe’s troubles and global growth. Ms. Lagarde implored world leaders not to become complacent.

Forecasters have said that the trends point to a moderation of economic growth in the United States, but they still expect the recovery to continue this year. The slowdown in part reflects an unusually warm winter, which pulled forward economic activity, making January and February seem artificially good and perhaps making recent weeks look worse than they truly were.

Still, the breadth of the recent weakening of activity shows that the economy remains fragile, as is typical in the years following a financial crisis.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index had been generally rising from last summer through March, but has fallen more than 3 percent since early April. Initial jobless claims had been on a long, slow fall since 2011, but have jumped about 6 percent in the last three weeks, according to a Labor Department report released Thursday.

Persistent economic worries — about both a potential slowdown in the near term and almost certain sluggish growth in the long term — have formed the backdrop for the annual spring meetings of the monetary fund and the World Bank. Finance ministers and central bankers are convening in Washington to discuss how to lift growth and reduce unemployment.

The fund this week upgraded its estimate of global growth in 2012 and 2013 from estimates made in January, but did so with major caveats. “An uneasy calm remains,” said Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist. “One has the feeling that any moment, things could well get very bad again.”

Europe remains the central concern. In a report released this week, the fund’s economists said that financial institutions in the European Union would shrink their balance sheets by up to $2.6 trillion by the end of next year, reducing the availability of credit for businesses and households by as much as 1.6 percent.

Private analysts have also warned of weakness in Europe, despite the European Central Bank’s effort to quiet markets by providing financial firms with unlimited low-cost, short-term loans — a policy credited with pulling down bond yields this winter.

Policy makers in Washington also have domestic worries. Speaking on Wednesday at the Brookings Institution, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner noted that the recovery had been slow and cautioned that headwinds remained.

Europe and the United States together account for about a third of global trade flows, and their financial systems are inextricably linked. For that reason, Mr. Geithner has urged European leaders to keep up efforts to bring down bond yields and bolster growth.

“It’s very important to get that balance right” between growth and austerity, he said. “You’re undermining the prospects for some stability in growth” by cutting too fast, he added.

But some domestic indicators have weakened in recent weeks as well.

First, there are signs that the sharp decline in the unemployment rate — which fell to 8.2 percent in March from 8.9 percent in October — might be over, with economic growth not robust enough for employers to continue adding jobs so rapidly.

In March, employers added just 120,000 new jobs, the fewest since November. The recent rise in new jobless claims has raised worries that the April report will also be disappointing, although some forecasters say the jobless-claims statistics have been affected by the timing of Easter.

In addition, oil prices remain stubbornly high, though they have dropped in recent days. Nationwide, gas prices are about $3.90 a gallon, up from $3.85 a month ago and $3.84 a year ago. That has cut into household’s budgets and hit consumer sentiment, which had been rising. Falling industrial production and home sales also point to a spring slowdown, as occurred in 2010 and 2011 as well.

A third straight year of economic disappointment could have major political implications, hurting President Obama’s re-election campaign and helping Mitt Romney, the likely Republican nominee, make the case against Mr. Obama.

Economists are divided over the import of the recent slowdown, with many saying it is more likely to seem like a blip than a major change.

“After a few months of good data, people got more aggressive with their expectations,” said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics. “The data are having a brief pause, or a consolidation. The consensus forecast had gotten stronger, so it’s easy to overshoot.”

Moreover, recent signals have been mixed. Retail and auto sales, for instance, have posted significant gains. And oil prices have moderated, partly as a result of an effort by the White House and its international partners to talk prices down and bring new sources of oil on line, with major exporters increasing production.

Nevertheless, the United States is forecast to grow at a relatively sluggish pace of about 2.5 percent this year. And the global economic picture remains characterized by anemic growth and high unemployment.

The leadership of the monetary fund and the World Bank will underscore these problems at the meetings in Washington. Officials plan to warn low-income countries not to depend on investment from debt-soaked advanced economies, and caution that aid and remittances may fall this year. They will also urge cash-rich middle-income countries, like China, to ensure a soft landing if their economies cool off.

Most of all, officials will urge Europe to bolster economic growth in countries like Italy and Spain, while raising new lending capacity for the monetary fund itself. “With the anxieties late last year, I think the E.C.B.’s extraordinary actions were appropriate, but I think some misled themselves because they only bought time,” said Robert B. Zoellick, the outgoing head of the World Bank, on Thursday. “Further actions are going to be called for.”

Domestically, most analysts still see an economy with a self-sustaining recovery, if not a spectacular one. “These things just don’t go up in a straight line,” Mr. Shepherdson said. “It is a tango.”