Nueva York.– Apenas dos días después de que la flamante directora del FMI, Christine Lagarde, advirtiera sobre el impacto catastrófico de un eventual default de Estados Unidos en la economía global, la agencia Moody's encendió ayer otra luz amarilla sobre el futuro económico de la primera potencia del mundo.

En un comunicado, la firma advirtió que podría rebajar la calificación de la deuda de Estados Unidos en las próximas semanas si el Congreso norteamericano no lograra un acuerdo para incrementar el techo de la deuda pública. De este modo, se transformó en la primera de las tres grandes agencias calificadoras en colocar la nota "AAA" de Estados Unidos en revisión para una posible rebaja, aunque Standard & Poor's ya había colocado en abril la calificación de Estados Unidos con un panorama negativo, lo que significa que una rebaja en la nota es probable en un plazo de 12 a 18 meses.

Moody's señaló que ve una "creciente posibilidad de que el límite de deuda no sea elevado de manera oportuna, lo que conduciría a un default sobre las obligaciones del Tesoro". Esto llevaría a Moody's a rebajar la nota de la deuda norteamericana, que actualmente es la máxima posible, advirtió la calificadora. Se trató de una alusión a la cesación de pagos en la que caería Estados Unidos si no hubiera acuerdo para aumentar el techo del endeudamiento público, fijado en 14,3 billones de dólares, antes del 2 de agosto.

El límite de endeudamiento ya fue alcanzado a mediados de mayo, y el Departamento del Tesoro estima que el 2 de agosto ya no dispondrá de recursos para hacer frente a sus obligaciones.

"El comunicado de Moody's es un oportuno recordatorio de la necesidad del Congreso de moverse rápidamente para evitar un default y alcanzar un acuerdo sobre un paquete de reducción sustancial del déficit", dijo Jeffrey A. Goldstein, subsecretario de Finanzas Domésticas del Tesoro norteamericano.

Al comunicado de Moody's se añadió la declaración de Ben Bernanke, presidente de la Reserva Federal, que dijo que una eventual moratoria de Estados Unidos provocaría "una gran crisis" económica mundial.

Si Estados Unidos, tradicionalmente visto como la plaza más segura por los inversores globales, no aumenta su límite máximo de endeudamiento antes del 2 de agosto y se ve obligado a incumplir sus compromisos de deuda, "llevará al sistema financiero al caos y afectará enormemente a la economía mundial", dijo Bernanke.

"El peligro es que los tipos de interés empiecen a subir a medida que nuestros acreedores pierdan la confianza en nuestra capacidad o disposición para pagar las deudas", añadió. Sus declaraciones, sumadas al comunicado de Moody's, provocaron una caída en la cotización del dólar: ayer se canjeaba a 0,7062 euros, comparado con los 0,7155 del cierre anterior.

Sin embargo, las declaraciones de Bernanke fueron interpretadas por los inversores como una señal de que la economía norteamericana –que aún no se recuperó de la crisis financiera posterior a la quiebra de Lehman Brothers, en 2008– requerirá un nuevo salvataje multimillonario.

Negociaciones

El presidente norteamericano, Barack Obama, encabeza una ronda de intensas negociaciones con los legisladores republicanos, que aceptarían aumentar el techo de la deuda a cambio de un plan de recorte presupuestario de cuatro billones de dólares en tres años.

Sin embargo, el acuerdo parece todavía lejano porque la reducción del déficit planteada por el gobierno supone aumentos de impuestos para los más ricos, una medida que los republicanos rechazan.

Anoche, Obama terminó abruptamente una tensa reunión sobre el presupuesto con líderes republicanos y abandonó la sala, dijo un asesor republicano cercano a las negociaciones.

La fuente afirmó que la sesión, que constituía la cuarta reunión consecutiva sobre el tema, fue la más tensa de la semana, ya que el presidente de la Cámara de Representantes, el republicano John Boehner, descartó los recortes del gasto ofrecidos por la Casa Blanca y los calificó de "artilugios y trucos de contabilidad".

El 2 de agosto, plazo final para evitar el default
del gobierno federal

El presidente estadounidense busca sellar un acuerdo que reduzca el déficit fiscal estadounidense y eleve el límite de endeudamiento del país antes del 2 de agosto, plazo final para evitar un cese de pagos.

Washington.– El presidente de Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, y los líderes del Congreso, que intentan encontrar una solución para elevar el límite de deuda del país, comenzaron reunirse esta tarde para buscar terreno común en aras de un acuerdo que evite una moratoria.

Obama y los legisladores de ambos partidos sostienen su tercer encuentro en igual número de días en la Casa Blanca, con el objetivo de sellar un acuerdo que reduzca el déficit fiscal estadounidense y eleve el límite de endeudamiento del país antes del 2 de agosto, plazo final para evitar un cese de pagos, ya que el Departamento del Tesoro ha dicho que en esa fecha se quedará sin fondos para pagar los compromisos del Gobierno.

"El fracaso no es una opción", dijo el secretario del Tesoro, Timothy Geithner, antes del reinicio de las negociaciones. Pero en una muestra de la dureza de las negociaciones, el líder republicano del Senado, Mitch McConnell, dijo que una solución de largo plazo a los problemas fiscales de Estados Unidos no sería posible mientras Obama se mantenga en el poder.

"Tras años de discusiones y meses de negociaciones, tengo pocas dudas de que mientras este presidente esté en el Salón Oval, una solución real es probablemente inalcanzable", dijo McConnell en el piso del Senado. Al mismo tiempo, afirmo que los republicanos harán "lo responsable" y se asegurarán que el Gobierno no caiga en default para el 2 de agosto.

Armagedón financiero

El ex asesor económico de Obama Larry Summers advirtió de un "Armagedón financiero" si el techo de la deuda, que limita cuánto puede pedir prestado Estados Unidos, no es elevado. Pero agregó que confiaba en que ambas partes alcanzarían un acuerdo a tiempo para evitar tal escenario.

Pero la Casa Blanca y los líderes republicanos se mantienen bastante alejados en sus posturas sobre el rol de la recaudación tributaria en el plan de lucha contra el déficit.

Obama presiona por un gran paquete de 4 billones de dólares que englobaría recortes de gasto, alzas tributarias para los más ricos y una reforma a los caros programas sociales destinados a los más viejos y a los pobres. Los republicanos están presionando por un acuerdo más pequeño, de 2 billones de dólares, pero limitado a recortes de gasto.

El presidente de la Cámara de Representantes, John Boehner, tuvo una reunión informativa con su círculo republicano en el Capitolio en la mañana del martes sobre el estado de las negociaciones.

Los republicanos han eludido la decisión de subir el actual límite de deuda de 14,3 billones de dólares porque lo quieren unir a los recortes de gastos, mientras que los demócratas también quieren elevar la recaudación eliminando las rebajas tributarias a los más ricos y a las empresas de algunos sectores como petróleo y gas.

Los republicanos dicen que todo incremento de impuestos perjudicaría a una ya vulnerable economía. "La urgencia es cada vez mayor", dijo un dirigente demócrata cercano a las negociaciones el lunes. "Todavía hay tiempo para cerrar esto, pero el tiempo también se acaba", agregó.

No subir el límite de deuda podría llevar a Estados Unidos de vuelta a la recesión, según economistas y funcionarios del Tesoro. En una carta en que subrayan la necesidad de un pronto acuerdo, grupos empresariales del país escribieron a Obama y a todos los miembros del Congreso para instarlos a incrementar el límite de deuda tan pronto como sea posible y comprometerse a un plan de reducción del déficit de largo plazo.

"No elevar el techo de la deuda sería un golpe inmediato y severo para la recuperación económica y no lograr avances significativos en la reducción de la deuda de largo plazo mantendrá la incertidumbre que está dificultando nuestro clima de inversión", dijo el presidente de Business Roundtable, John Engler.

Obama walks out of US budget talks

President Barack Obama late on Wednesday walked out of budget talks with Republicans, raising concerns that the White House and Congress will fail to strike a deal on fiscal policy and increase the US borrowing limit.

The abrupt end to the rancorous talks came just hours after Moody’s, the credit rating agency, warned that continued political deadlock over raising the government’s debt ceiling might lead it to downgrade the US from its triple A credit rating.

Ben Bernanke earlier on Wednesday had given his most explicit warning yet on what would happen if the debt ceiling is not raised.

In testimony before the House financial services committee, the US Federal Reserve chairman said a recession on the scale of 2008 would be “certainly conceivable” and that it would have “a very adverse effect very quickly on the recovery”.

According to one Republican aide Mr Obama stormed out of the talks after rejecting a request by Eric Cantor, the Republican majority leader, to consider a short–term extension of the debt ceiling.

But a Democratic official who was present in the room denied that the departure had been abrupt. But the official said Mr Obama did say that the meeting had validated the reasons why Americans had misgivings about Washington and that “enough was enough”, and that the impasse had to be resolved. The discussions are due to restart later on Thursday.

The threat of a debt downgrade and the failure to reach debt deal sent the dollar lower in Asian trading on Thursday but Treasury yields were largely unaffected by the developments.

The focus of the talks on Wednesday centred on spending cuts. One Republican aide said the White House had retreated on the size of reductions it was willing to entertain without any increase in revenue, from $2,000bn last week to $1,500bn. This caused Mr Cantor to shift his stance and offer a short–term hike in the debt ceiling, the aide added.

Republicans have been opposing demands by the White House and congressional Democrats to generate new revenue by raising taxes or limiting tax deductions for the wealthiest Americans and some businesses.

The Democratic official said negotiators would on Thursday discuss enforcement mechanisms, which could mean the imposition of a budgetary straitjacket with some form of automatic trigger to slash deficits if fiscal discipline lapses. Payroll taxes and other spending cuts could also be on the agenda.

The official added that Mr Obama had told the congressional leaders that they had until Friday to decide whether they could push for a large–scale deal or not.

Earlier this week, Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, suggested the use of a rare procedural mechanism to allow the president to approve an increase in the US debt ceiling without the support of Republicans. The unexpected move was greeted by the White House as strong evidence of the commitment of Republican leaders to raising the debt ceiling, underscoring the belief that a default would have devastating economic implications.

Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate majority leader, said he was still studying the plan, but noted that it “could go a long way toward resolving the impasse in which we find ourselves”.

At the same time, however, there was concern that the “escape hatch” presented by Mr McConnell would remove some of the urgency from the negotiations and seriously diminish the chances of a significant deficit reduction deal being reached over the next two weeks.

The level of ambition in the talks has already decreased in recent days, as Republicans pulled away from a deal to reduce deficits by $4,000bn over the next decade and refocused on a more limited agreement worth about $2,000bn that would delay a comprehensive solution to the country’s long–term fiscal woes until after the 2012 presidential election. Some Democrats were also unimpressed with Mr McConnell’s plan.

“This approach fails the test of what Coloradans tell me they want, which is to materially address the debt and deficit crisis in a bipartisan and comprehensive way,” Michael Bennet, the Democratic senator, told the FT. “From that standpoint, this proposal feels a bit like a Washington gimmick that yet again enables us to avoid responsibility and kick the can down the road.”

Chris Krueger, an analyst at MF Global, said the McConnell offer “does not solve the most important sticking point of the negotiations”. Republicans are continuing to resist demands by the White House and Democrats for increases in revenue that they argue would balance the package and make wealthier Americans share some of the burden of the fiscal consolidation.

Mr McConnell’s plan is convoluted. Three times between now and the 2012 presidential election, the White House would send a request to Congress for a debt–limit increase of $700bn or $900bn. Congress would each time vote to reject the request and the president would then veto the denial.

At that point, only a two–thirds majority of Congress could overturn the presidential veto, meaning the debt ceiling increase could effectively be approved with the support of only one–third of lawmakers. Republicans would not have to take an unpopular vote to raise the debt limit, putting the burden exclusively on the Democrats.

Talks on US debt ceiling go off course

Negotiations to raise America’s borrowing limit appeared to be veering off track on Tuesday, as Republicans dug in against White House demands to increase revenues and proposed a complicated procedural manoeuvre to avoid default.

Amid a growing feeling of desperation over the budget impasse, Republican leaders suggested they were increasingly pessimistic about the potential for an agreement, blaming President Barack Obama for the stalemate.

“I have little question that as long as this president is in the Oval Office, a real solution is probably unattainable,” said Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the Senate.

Mr McConnell outlined a parliamentary mechanism that – in a worst–case scenario – would allow the debt limit to be increased without any Republican votes.

Under the proposal, Congress would formally reject a request by Mr Obama to increase the debt ceiling. The president could then veto their denial, and Congress would be unable to override the veto without a two–thirds majority.

According to a Democratic official close to the talks, Mr Obama did not rule out using the manoeuvre if a deal could not be reached. The official suggested that it was a positive sign of Mr McConnell’s commitment to ensuring the US would not default on its debt.

However, Mr Obama signalled that the proposal was not a good option because it would fail to address the country's fiscal challenges.

The McConnell plan would shift the entire political burden of the debt ceiling vote on to the Democrats, making it an unattractive option for the White House.

Even so, some influential conservatives outside Congress dismissed the proposal. Redstate.com, a popular Tea Party blog, labelled it the “Pontius Pilate Pass the Buck Act of 2011” and a “historic capitulation”.

Newt Gingrich, the former Republican House speaker who is running for president, said it was “an irresponsible surrender to big government, big deficits and continued overspending”.

The proposal was made ahead of the latest White House summit between Mr Obama and congressional leaders – the fourth in less than a week – designed to break the deadlock.

According to the Democratic official, the talks on Tuesday were constructive because John Boehner, the Republican House speaker, and Mr Obama talked openly about their ambitious plan – since derailed by Mr Boehner in favour of a smaller deal – to cut $4,000bn from the US deficit. The official said the discussion gave Mr Obama an opening to restart a dialogue with Mr Boehner.

Before the meeting, however, Mr Boehner contributed to the darkening outlook by saying that the debt ceiling increase was Mr Obama’s “problem”.

In the meetings, Republicans maintained their stance that a debt ceiling increase could not be accompanied by new tax revenues. Democrats, in turn, reiterated that they would not support significant cuts in entitlement spending if the deal did not include increases in revenue.

The Democratic official said the meeting began with Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, telling the lawmakers and Mr Obama that America was a triple–A rated nation, but that the markets could turn against the US if investors began to doubt the parties’ ability to reach a deal.

Moody’s Investors Service, the rating agency, has indicated that it could put the US on notice for a possible downgrade in mid–July if it did not believe a deal could be reached. Republican and Democratic negotiators will meet again on Wednesday.

The Democratic official suggested that a deal could coalesce around $1,500bn in deficit reduction and could promise savings of up to $3,000bn if it included an enforcement mechanism that would trigger automatic savings in the future.

Charlie Cook, a veteran political analyst in Washington, said the chance of default had risen, even though it remained unlikely.

“For the folks in the market who are absolutely convinced that the US is not going to default, I don’t know how they can be as positive about that now,” Mr Cook said.

Moody’s raises pressure for US debt deal

Moody’s placed the triple A rating of the US on review for a possible downgrade as fears mounted that Washington will fail to raise the federal debt ceiling by August 2.

“Moody’s considers the probability of a default on interest payments to be low but no longer to be de minimis,” the rating agency said on Wednesday.

The Moody’s action was expected, but by spelling out how even a brief default could lead to a lasting downgrade in the US credit rating, it heightens the pressure on Republicans and Democrats to reach a deal.

The Moody’s warning came as Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve chairman, gave his most explicit warning yet on what would happen if the debt ceiling is not raised. In testimony before the House financial services committee, he said a recession on the scale of 2008 would be “certainly conceivable” and that it would have “a very adverse effect very quickly on the recovery”.

Republicans are demanding large spending cuts in return for a rise in the debt ceiling. If there is no increase by August 2, the US could only spend incoming revenues, leading to default on some obligations.

In his testimony, Mr Bernanke outlined extra stimulus options the Fed could use if the economy remains weak, acknowledging the possibility of a return to monetary easing. “The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might re–emerge, implying a need for additional policy support,” he said.

If the Fed chose further easing, Mr Bernanke said its options included keeping interest rates close to zero, buying assets in another round of quantitative easing, extending the maturity of assets on its balance sheet or reducing the 0.25 per cent it pays banks on their reserves.

Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global in New York, said: “The words of the chairman today have opened the door a little bit to more easing. The message seems to be that either growth will reaccelerate or the Fed will step in again.”

The Fed chairman’s comments helped trigger a rally in commodity prices. Gold hit a record $1,587 an ounce, while oil and agricultural commodities rose sharply. The yield on 10–year Treasuries was unchanged, closing at 2.88 per cent.

Mr Bernanke also said, “The economy could evolve in a way that would warrant a move toward less–accommodative policy”. He noted that “inflation has picked up so far this year” and that members of the rate–setting Federal Open Market Committee expect it only to settle back to target in the coming quarters.

As long as the Fed expects inflation to remain muted, and does not see a risk of deflation, it is unlikely to launch any further stimulus.

Additional reporting by Michael MacKenzie in New York.