In Biting Cold, Protesters Pack the Center of Moscow

By Ellen Barry and Andrew E. Kramer
New York Times, February 4, 2012

Moscow — Antigovernment protesters managed to gather a third huge crowd in the center of Moscow on Saturday, undeterred by the arctic cold or by the near certainty that Vladimir V. Putin will win a six-year presidential term next month.

Demonstrators braved bitterly cold temperatures to attend the protest

This time, the Russian authorities were prepared, organizing a simultaneous, and also huge, rally in defense of Mr. Putin. Speakers there issued dire warnings of the possible consequences of continued protest: revolution and the breakup of the country.

The sun was a remote white disk above the horizon, and the temperature was measured at minus 4. Demonstrators, swaddled in fur hats and parkas, hopped to keep their feet from freezing.

By the end of the frigid day, it appeared that antigovernment demonstrations had not lost momentum and could continue into the spring. If they do, they will pose an unexpected challenge to Mr. Putin, who has never faced sustained public opposition in his 12 years as the country’s paramount leader.

“It’s clear nothing will change, but at least we can demonstrate — six months ago nobody could have imagined it in Moscow,” said Marina V. Segupova, 28, an interior decorator who was wearing a scarf encrusted with white from her frozen breath. “We want the military and the police to come over to our side. We will show our good will; we will show that we’re kind.”

“We are a snowball,” she said, “and we are rolling.”

The city’s authorities said the antigovernment crowd on Saturday was larger than at either of the two similar rallies in December, and they estimated that about 36,000 people where there. Organizers gave an estimate of 120,000.

With precisely a month left before presidential elections, polls show that Mr. Putin, who is currently prime minister, is far ahead of his four rivals in the race, and has a good chance of breaking the 50 percent barrier to win in a first round. If he falls short of that, he would be almost certain to win in a second round three weeks later, though the process would cast doubt on the strength of his public mandate.

The protest movement, meanwhile, has not coalesced into a coherent political force. It lacks leaders willing or able to challenge Mr. Putin, still by far the country’s most popular politician. Maksim Trudolyubov, the editorial editor of Vedomosti, a daily newspaper, said the protests’ major impact was to broadcast a message that Mr. Putin could not continue to rule in the same highly centralized style.

“We are standing at a really important threshold for this country,” Mr. Trudolyubov said in an interview. “Right now, if nothing extraordinary happens — a black swan, or something — he is of course the president in March. But in March, he will be a very different president, a president with a different level of legitimacy.”

This series of demonstrations was set off by parliamentary elections on Dec. 4, which were widely condemned as fraudulent. Many participants say, though, that the upwelling of anger dates to September, when Mr. Putin revealed his plans to return to the presidency in the spring, replacing his protégé, Dmitri A. Medvedev.

The announcement was meant to buoy the mood in the electorate, but had the opposite effect, especially among urban, middle-class voters who are yearning for a competitive political system. Mr. Putin served as president from 2000 to 2008 and can legally serve two more terms.

Top officials were initially silent about the December protests, but on Saturday the government had taken an assertive approach, organizing pro-government demonstrations in several large cities as a counterweight.

The police said the pro-government rally in Moscow drew 138,000 people, though journalists there said the number was greatly exaggerated. The nightly news featured the event as its lead story.

Speakers condemned the antigovernment protesters, who were referred to at different points as “traitors” and “Bolotnaya snot,” after their gathering place at Bolotnaya Square. Participants carried signs reading “We don’t need an Arab Spring!” and “No to Orange Revolutions,” a reference to the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution in Ukraine, which is widely seen here as orchestrated by the United States.

One speaker singled out the new American ambassador, Michael A. McFaul, who has been accused of coming to Russia to touch off a revolution.

“We say no to the destruction of Russia,” Sergei Kurginyan, a political scientist, said from the stage. “We say no to the American Embassy, where these terribly degraded people turn for help. As soon as Michael McFaul arrived, they went there in an organized crowd, like cows to a watering place. We say to this: No, no, and again no!”

Mr. Putin later said he was surprised and pleased with the turnout at the pro-government event. He acknowledged, answering a journalist’s question, that some state workers might have been prompted to attend by their employers, but said the gathering was far too large to be attributed to administrative pressure.

“It is completely obvious that people just came out to express their opinion, and that position is that they support what we are doing,” Mr. Putin said, in comments carried by the Interfax news agency.

Many pro-government demonstrators arrived on buses, and several refused to comment on why they were there. Anatoly Komarov, 65, said he came because “my heart called me.”

“I remember how we lived in 1960 and 1991,” he said, adding that he feared the country would be drawn into another revolution. “Russia is a successful country. I have a good financial situation; my pension is 12,000 rubles,” or about $400 a month.

“To you this is a ridiculous sum,” he added, “but for me, it is enough.”

Protest leaders on both sides had feared Saturday’s cold would keep people away. Cellphones and tape recorders malfunctioned, fingers went numb after a few seconds’ contact with the air, and exposed cheeks tingled with the sensation that Russians call “needles.”

At the antigovernment gathering, some protesters were dressed as condoms, in sly reference to Mr. Putin’s caustic comment that the white ribbons that symbolize their movement resembled condoms.

There were moments of self-conscious humor: Sergei Udaltsov, the leader of a fringe leftist political group, said in a speech that the movement should not be labeled a middle-class revolt. “We are not revolutionaries in mink coats!” he shouted. Just then, a woman in the crowd, wearing a mink coat, yelled, “I am!”

Many participants admitted that they found it hard to predict what would happen after the presidential elections, and their goals seemed murky. Some marchers said they hoped new presidential elections would be called in a year or two.

Galina Venediktova, 56, arrived at the rally in a fur coat and pink hat. A retired accountant, she said dissatisfaction over the December parliamentary elections had released frustration that had built up over many years about teacher salaries, health care and corruption.

“When Medvedev came, he was promising a lot, and people thought, ‘O.K.,’ but for four years, nothing has changed,” she said. “Then Putin says, ‘It’s enough, I’m coming back.’ But he is worse — he hasn’t even promised anything.

“So that was like the last drop, when he said, ‘O.K., I’m coming back,’ ” she said. “O.K., we have had enough.”

(*) Reporting was contributed by David M. Herszenhorn, Glenn Kates, Sophia Kishkovsky, Anastasia Sadovskaya, Michael Schwirtz and Olga Slobodchikova.