Bagdad.– Pese al retiro anticipado de
las tropas de combate norteamericanas en Irak, el Pentágono
aclaró ayer que la guerra en el convulsionado país aún no
terminó y que los 50.000 militares que permanecerán allí
hasta fines de 2011 seguirán ejecutando acciones
antiterroristas.
"Hasta donde yo sé, nadie ha
declarado el fin de la guerra en Irak", afirmó Geoff
Morrell, vocero del Pentágono. Y agregó: "Todavía
hay enfrentamientos armados allí, por lo que las acciones
antiterroristas seguirán siendo parte de la misión de los
soldados que continúan desplegados en ese territorio".
En un intento por ayudar a las fuerzas
de seguridad iraquíes a mantener la presión sobre los
grupos extremistas y proteger a la población local,
"las tropas estadounidenses continuarán conduciendo
operaciones conjuntas contra los insurgentes", precisó
el vocero.
De los 56.000 militares estadounidenses
que permanecen hoy en Irak, 6000 saldrán para el 1° de
septiembre, fecha de inicio de la llamada Operación Nuevo
Amanecer, en la que los 50.000 soldados restantes participarán
en tareas de estabilidad, asesoramiento, capacitación y
apoyo a las fuerzas de seguridad iraquíes.
Si es necesario, sin embargo, esos
soldados estarán listos para misiones de combate. "Sería
un error decir que la lucha ha llegado a su fin debido a la
retirada de esta brigada, porque todavía queda trabajo por
hacer", dijo, por su parte, el vocero del Pentágono
Bryan Whitman.
En las últimas semanas, el incremento
de la violencia en Irak volvió a poner en duda la capacidad
del ejército local para garantizar la seguridad del país
sin la presencia de las tropas norteamericanas. El jefe de
operaciones especiales del Pentágono, el general Patrick
Higgins, además, recordó que la estructura de la red
terrorista Al–Qaeda permanece "relativamente
intacta" en Bagdad.
Ayer, sin ir más lejos, el grupo de
insurgentes islamistas The Islamic State of Irak, vinculado
con Al–Qaeda, se adjudicó la autoría del atentado
suicida perpetrado el martes contra un centro de
reclutamiento del ejército iraquí en Bagdad, que con 59
muertos y 125 heridos se convirtió en el ataque más
sangriento del año.
En un comunicado, el grupo señaló que
su atacante pasó fácilmente por retenes para luego detonar
sus explosivos entre numerosos oficiales y reclutas, lo cual
demostró la facilidad para burlar a las fuerzas de
seguridad iraquíes, "que son incapaces de proteger al
país sin la ayuda de Estados Unidos".
Ayer, por otro lado, el primer ministro
iraquí, Nouri al–Maliki, y el ex primer ministro Iyad
Allawi reanudaron las negociaciones para formar un nuevo
gobierno y poner fin al vacío político en el que se haya
inmerso el país desde hace meses.
Civilians
to Take U.S. Lead as Military Leaves Iraq
As the United
States military prepares to leave Iraq by the end of 2011,
the Obama administration is planning a remarkable civilian
effort, buttressed by a small army of contractors, to fill
the void.
Washington.–
By October 2011, the State Department will assume
responsibility for training the Iraqi police, a task that
will largely be carried out by contractors. With no American
soldiers to defuse sectarian tensions in northern Iraq, it
will be up to American diplomats in two new $100 million
outposts to head off potential confrontations between the
Iraqi Army and Kurdish pesh merga forces.
To
protect the civilians in a country that is still home to
insurgents with Al Qaeda and Iranian–backed militias, the
State Department is planning to more than double its private
security guards, up to as many as 7,000, according to
administration officials who disclosed new details of the
plan. Defending five fortified compounds across the country,
the security contractors would operate radars to warn of
enemy rocket attacks, search for roadside bombs, fly
reconnaissance drones and even staff quick reaction forces
to aid civilians in distress, the officials said.
“I
don’t think State has ever operated on its own,
independent of the U.S. military, in an environment that is
quite as threatening on such a large scale,” said James
Dobbins, a former ambassador who has seen his share of
trouble spots as a special envoy for Afghanistan, Bosnia,
Haiti, Kosovo and Somalia. “It is unprecedented in scale.”
White
House officials expressed confidence that the transfer to
civilians – about 2,400 people who would work at the
Baghdad embassy and other diplomatic sites – would be
carried out on schedule, and that they could fulfill their
mission of helping bring stability to Iraq.
“The
really big picture that we have seen in Iraq over the last
year and a half to two years is this: the number of violent
incidents is significantly down, the competence of Iraqi
security forces is significantly up, and politics has
emerged as the basic way of doing business in Iraq,” said
Antony J. Blinken, the national security adviser to Vice
President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “If that trend continues,
and I acknowledge it is an ‘if,’ that creates a much
better context for dealing with the very significant and
serious problems that remain in Iraq.”
But
the tiny military presence under the Obama administration’s
plan – limited to several dozen to several hundred
officers in an embassy office who would help the Iraqis
purchase and field new American military equipment – and
the civilians’ growing portfolio have led some veteran
Iraq hands to suggest that thousands of additional troops
will be needed after 2011.
“We
need strategic patience here,” Ryan C. Crocker, who served
as ambassador in Iraq from 2007 until early 2009, said in an
interview. “Our timetables are getting out ahead of Iraqi
reality. We do have an Iraqi partner in this. We certainly
are not the ones making unilateral decisions anymore. But if
they come to us later on this year requesting that we
jointly relook at the post–2011 period, it is going to be
in our strategic interest to be responsive.”
The
array of tasks for which American troops are likely to be
needed, military experts and some Iraqi officials say,
include training Iraqi forces to operate and logistically
support new M–1 tanks, artillery and F–16s they intend
to acquire from the Americans; protecting Iraq’s airspace
until the country can rebuild its air force; and perhaps
assisting Iraq’s special operations units in carrying out
counterterrorism operations.
Such
an arrangement would need to be negotiated with Iraqi
officials, who insisted on the 2011 deadline in the
agreement with the Bush administration for removing American
forces. With the Obama administration in campaign mode for
the coming midterm elections and Iraqi politicians yet to
form a government, the question of what future military
presence might be needed has been all but banished from
public discussion.
“The
administration does not want to touch this question right
now,” said one administration official involved in Iraq
issues, adding that military officers had suggested that
5,000 to 10,000 troops might be needed. “It runs counter
to their political argument that we are getting out of these
messy places,” the official, speaking only on condition of
anonymity, added. “And it would be quite counterproductive
to talk this way in front of the Iraqis. If the Iraqis want
us, they should be the demandeur.”
The
Obama administration had already committed itself to
reducing American troops in Iraq to 50,000 by the end of
August, a goal the White House on Wednesday said would be
met. Administration officials and experts outside government
say, however, that carrying out the agreement that calls for
removing all American forces by the end of 2011 will be far
more challenging.
The
progress or difficulties in transferring responsibility to
the civilians will not only influence events in Iraq but
will also provide something of a test case for the Obama
administration’s longer–term strategy in Afghanistan.
The
preparations for the civilian mission have been under way
for months. One American official said that more than 1,200
specific tasks carried out by the American military in Iraq
had been identified to be handed over to the civilians,
transferred to the Iraqis or phased out.
To
move around Iraq without United States troops, the State
Department plans to acquire 60 mine–resistant, ambush–protected
vehicles, called MRAPs, from the Pentagon; expand its
inventory of armored cars to 1,320; and create a mini–air
fleet by buying three planes to add to its lone aircraft.
Its helicopter fleet, which will be piloted by contractors,
will grow to 29 choppers from 17.
The
department’s plans to rely on 6,000 to 7,000 security
contractors, who are also expected to form “quick reaction
forces” to rescue civilians in trouble, is a sensitive
issue, given Iraqi fury about shootings of civilians by
American private guards in recent years. Administration
officials said that security contractors would have no
special immunity and would be required to register with the
Iraqi government. In addition, one of the State Department’s
regional security officers, agents who oversee security at
diplomatic outposts, will be required to approve and
accompany every civilian convoy, providing additional
oversight.
The
startup cost of building and sustaining two embassy branch
offices – one in Kirkuk and the other in Mosul – and of
hiring security contractors, buying new equipment and
setting up two consulates in Basra and Erbil is about $1
billion. It will cost another $500 million or so to make the
two consulates permanent. And getting the police training
program under way will cost about $800 million.
Among
the trickiest missions for the civilians will be dealing
with lingering Kurdish and Arab tensions. To tamp down
potential conflicts in disputed areas, Gen. Ray Odierno, the
senior American commander in Iraq, established a series of
checkpoints made up of American soldiers, Iraqi Army troops
and pesh merga fighters.
But
those checkpoints may be phased out when the American troops
leave. Instead, the United States is counting on the new
embassy branch offices in Mosul and Kirkuk. Administration
officials had planned to have another embassy branch office
in Baquba, but dropped that idea because of spending
constraints.
“They
will be eyes and ears on the ground to see if progress is
being made or problems are developing,” Mr. Blinken said.
But
Daniel P. Serwer, a vice president of the United States
Institute of Peace, a Congressionally financed research
center, questioned whether this would be sufficient.
“There is a risk it will open the door to real problems.
Our soldiers have been out there in the field with the Kurds
and Arabs. Now they are talking about two embassy branch
offices, and the officials there may need to stay around the
quad if it is not safe enough to be outside.”
Another
area that has prompted concern is police training, which the
civilians are to take over by October 2011. That will
primarily be done by contractors with State Department
oversight and is to be carried out at three main hubs with
visits to other sites. Administration officials say the
program has been set up with Iraqi input and will help Iraqi
police officers develop the skills to move from
counterinsurgency operations to crime solving. The aim is to
“focus on the higher–end skill set,” Colin Kahl, a
deputy assistant secretary of defense, told reporters this
week.
But
James M. Dubik, a retired Army three–star general who
oversaw the training of Iraqi security forces in 2007 and
2008, questioned whether the State Department was fully up
to the mission. “The task is much more than just
developing skills,” he said. “It is developing the
Ministry of Interior and law enforcement systems at the
national to local levels, and the State Department has
little experience in doing that.”
Mr.
Crocker said that however capable the State Department was
in carrying out its tasks, it was important for the American
military to keep enough of a presence in Iraq to encourage
Iraq’s generals to stay out of politics.
“We
need an intense, sustained military–to–military
engagement,” he said. “If military commanders start
asking themselves, ‘Why are we fighting and dying to hold
this country together while the civilians fiddle away our
future?’, that can get dangerous.”
